Political analysis on seething soap opera

At a time of dishonourable and unbecoming diatribe being levelled against fellow compatriots, I thought it would be appropriately topical to provide my two cents (avoiding personal attacks that just make the accuser look indecent). You see, I fancy myself as a political analyst and a futurist and thought I’d reward my dear readers with some of my wisdom. I am sure you are pleased.

But in all seriousness, I am quite serious about this prediction: If Julia Gillard stays as leader of the Australian Labor Party, the Australian Greens’ primary vote in the 2013 elections will reach close to the 20 percent mark. You heard it here first.

Why? Gillard is more right-leaning that Rudd, and she has taken some stances that sit uncomfortably close to the far right for centrists, let alone for left leaning Labor members and voters. These stances have sufficiently reverberated that the Greens will pick up first preference votes from an unprecedentedly high number of swing and Labor voters.

Gillard has only reluctantly addressed climate change through the Carbon Tax, and it is obvious that the Greens were the decisive party in that success. She has stepped away from Pokies reform, showing a lack of true compassion for the people in need in the community, a back down to the pokies lobby and a renege on a crucial promise to Independent MP Andrew Wilkie (a brazen move, given that it occurred after Labor no longer needed his vote due to the reclamation of their speaker). Gillard watered down the Mining Super Profits Tax (and legitimised the self-interested lobbying by an almost oligarchical elite). Gillard has moved far to the right of Rudd’s stance on refugees and asylum seekers, seeking to reinstate offshore processing and assuming populist but divisive ‘turn back the boats’ style rhetoric.

Whatever your opinion on these (seemingly ad hoc) policy choices, it is clear that they paint Gillard as a right leaning PM.

But of course, the Greens will increase their primary vote no matter who eventuates as Labor leader. Whilst under Rudd they may not haemorrhage as many left leaning votes, they will still lose some. Moreover, due to the alternative being the polarising Tony Abbot, the Greens will certainly pick up votes from some undecided and Liberal leaning swing voters (not to mention protest votes). Under Rudd, I would predict a primary vote for the Greens of around 16 per cent, up from 12 per cent at the 2010 election.

If Labor’s popularity does not increase, the result will be a Liberal whitewash. But if Labor can ratchet up a few more points on the popularity meters, they may be able to form another coalition with the Greens (the Independents will, I suspect, hesitate to join another Labor coalition). Whoever is leader, Labor will not win a majority at the next election, and may not do so again for a very long time.

Perhaps Rudd is right, it is time for more democracy and less factional dealing in the Labor caucus. For good or bad, they will probably have plenty of time away from the spotlight to make the necessary reforms – the first hopefully being to wash their mouths out with soap.